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 WASHINGTON – Sri Lanka, Montenegro and an African “Arc of Conflict” will be among the 10 most volatile areas of violence, war and political instability the world will likely face in 2000, according to an international aid organization.
World Vision, in its second annual listing of the world’s top 10 “global hot spots,” also identified Nigeria, Colombia, Angola, Pakistan/India, Sierra Leone, Chechnya/Russian Caucuses and Indonesia. None of the nations or regions was ranked.
“These are the world’s 10 most violent and vulnerable areas,” said Serge Duss, Director of Public Policy and Government Relations for World Vision. “The difference between peace and war is often a difficult and delicate balance influenced by politics, cultural or tribal heritage, and rebel groups determined to topple either democratically-elected leaders or illegitimate regimes.” |
As the most violent and war-driven century in history comes to a close, Duss noted, the year 2000 promises little in terms of peaceful reconciliation of many regional conflicts.
“Several of these top 10 ‘global hot spots,’ regrettably, were on our list a year ago,” he said. “These conflicts will tend to remain on our annual list unless and until the international community significantly increases its efforts to resolve them.”
Those “hold-over hot spots” include Colombia, Indonesia and what Duss calls an African “Arc of Conflict,” encompassing Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of Congo, the border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia.
Interestingly, two countries, North Korea and Iraq, which were included on the 1999 listing of “global hot spots,” are absent from the 2000 list.
“Those areas, while still potentially volatile, seem to be stabilizing,” Duss said. “Saddam Hussein’s power base appears solid and the region overall is seeing a gradual easing of tensions. Kim Jung Il appears to have solidified his authority and slowly is opening up his country to neighboring South Korea and Japan.”
Looking ahead to 2000, Montenegro’s planned referendum for independence in the spring will likely bring considerable tension between supporters of Slobodan Milosevic seeking to keep the breakaway republic under Yugoslav control and others seeking formal and permanent independence.
A similar tension has resulted in a long and protracted conflict between Russia and Chechnya, which declared its independence in 1991. The ground and air war, which has erupted in recent weeks as Russian forces struggle to gain control of the Chechnyan capital of Grozny, threatens the stability of nearby Georgia, Ingushetia, Daghestan and North Ossetia - regions ill-equipped to handle the more than 200,000 Chechnyan refugees.
In Sri Lanka, the suicide bombing attack Saturday that nearly killed President Chandrika Kumaratunga is evidence of the instability resulting from a 16-year-old civil war pitting the mostly Sinhalese government against the ethnic Tamil Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Occasional peace talks have foundered and more than 55,000 people have been killed in the fighting, while another 800,000 people, mostly Tamils, are displaced. The war effort has drained the government treasury, has raised inflation to nearly 20 percent and has discouraged foreign investment.
In Indonesia, three factors contribute to growing instability: the on-going turmoil in East Timor as the separatist state struggles to form a new government; the growing social and political turbulence in Aceh; and the economic crisis plaguing the nation overall.
Despite major progress toward peace in most of the African continent, some areas continue to be plagued by violence and instability.
In Angola, an intractable civil war has left an estimated one million civilians dead and another 1.7 million people displaced from their homes. United Nations’ peacekeepers departed early in 1999, and half of the country is inaccessible due to the insecurity of roads. The government, after losing control of nearly 70 percent of the country, recently has gained the upper hand on UNITA (National Union for the Total Independence of Angola), pushing the rebel force into a small area along the border with Namibia. UNITA, however, still has substantial caches of weapons and the advantage of being bush fighters.
Much of Sierra Leone remains insecure and facing serious social and economic problems, despite a peace accord signed in July between the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) and the government. The previous nine-year conflict killed more than 20,000, displaced 700,000 to one million and has led to a chronic food shortage, a shortage of clean water and a lack of primary health care, all of which have been exacerbated by the insecurity.
In Nigeria, despite the first free elections in 16 years, the nation’s transition to democracy is tenuous. Moreover, the recent introduction of Shariah (strict Islam law) in the northern state of Zamfara is likely to cause further division between the Muslim north and the Christian south.
Finally, the African “Arc of Conflict,” composed of four areas, is a likely source of continued instability in 2000:
- Democratic Republic of the Congo: Despite the signing of the Lusaka Peace Accord in July among the seven African armies engaged in war, the truce has been violated by all countries and tensions continue. In addition, as the country becomes more accessible, immense humanitarian needs are being uncovered. The war already has displaced 1 million people and put several more millions at risk of starvation.
- Republic of Congo: There appears to be little hope this neighboring country’s on-going civil war will be resolved in 2000. More than 500,000 people have been displaced, and 10,000-15,000 died in 1999 alone as a result of the conflict.
- Ethiopia/Eritrea: Fighting continues between these two countries over a border dispute. Thousands have been killed and there are estimated to be hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people. There also have been reports of forced emigration and ethnic cleansing in both countries.
- Somalia/Somalialand: Extensive poverty has been exacerbated by a culture of violence and clan warfare in Somalia, resulting in more than 400,000 refugees. Much of the country operates as a stateless, clan-controlled society. Constitutional provisions and national laws are inoperative, except in Somaliland. In addition to a major drought, the nation has faced floods and a ban on the export of the nation's livestock to Saudi Arabia and nearby countries. More than 300,000 people, most of them children, face starvation.
- Sudan: This nation’s civil war has continued for the better part of four decades, and virtually all of Sudan's nine neighbors have become embroiled in the conflict in some way over the years. Relations with Ethiopia have improved this year and a peace deal with Uganda was brokered earlier this month. Yet, no lasting peace agreement has been established between the SPLA in the south and the government in Khartoum. More than two million people have died, and millions more are homeless or without land to farm and threatened by starvation and disease.
Joining Duss at a briefing today on the “global hot spots” at the National Press Club were Jane Holl, Executive Director of the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict; and Roger Winter, Executive Director of the U.S. Committee for Refugees.
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